OBSERVER: Monitoring fire emissions and mitigating global impacts with CAMS
OBSERVER: Monitoring fire emissions and mitigating global impacts with CAMS
evan
Wed, 26/02/2025 – 12:23
2024 saw South America in the grips of a wildfire crisis, with some countries and regions experiencing record-breaking emissions and severe air quality impacts, as highlighted in the annual wildfires review of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). In addition to the destruction and tragic loss of life and biodiversity, wildfire smoke emissions significantly worsened air pollution in the affected regions and beyond, amplifying health risks and contributing to a rise in CO2 global emissions.
In this week’s Observer, we explore CAMS data on the historic wildfires, their impact on air quality, and the critical role the service plays in monitoring emissions and smoke transport around the world.
Historic fires and record-breaking emissions in 2024
South America endured a devastating wildfire season, with the CAMS Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), which provides global fire data starting from 1 January 2003 to present day, estimating daily and seasonal emissions far above typical values. Bolivia faced its worst fire year of the past two decades, losing over 15 million hectares of rainforest to flames. CAMS data revealed that Bolivia recorded the highest wildfire emissions for every month of 2024 except December.
Cumulative total wildfire carbon emissions (red lines show 2024, grey lines show 2003-2023, top) and Annual total estimated wildfire carbon emissions (bottom) for Brazil and Bolivia. Credit: CAMS.
Venezuela, Guyana and Suriname also closed 2024 with their highest fire emissions following an active fire season in the spring. In Brazil, nearly 1,700 fire spots in the Roraima state contributed to half of the nation’s monthly emissions in February. The Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland, experienced a staggering 980% increase in wildfires according to Brazil’s Institute for Space Research. Over 1.5 million hectares burned, with fires in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul releasing a record-breaking 3.3 megatonnes of carbon by mid-year according to CAMS GFAS data, before the typical onset of the fire season. In the Brazilian Amazon, the state of Amazonas also experienced its highest total estimated annual emissions in the GFAS dataset, which provides global fire data extending from 2003 to present day, while other states were well above average and at their highest values of the past decade.
During the main fire season in September-October, a continued growth in emissions in Brazil and Bolivia was monitored by CAMS. By the end of 2024, PM2.5 levels had exceeded safe thresholds for more than 150 days in some regions, posing severe public health risks and significantly degrading air quality across the central region.
Number of days of daily mean concentrations of PM2.5 above 35 µg/m3 during 2024 (up to December 2024). Credit: CAMS.
In North America, persistent ‘zombie’ or holdover fires—wildfires which smoulder through winter months and reignite in drier, warmer conditions—are thought to have sparked major blazes in northeastern British Columbia in spring. By the end of the fire season, which included major summer fires in the Northwest Territories, Canada registered the second-highest wildfire carbon emissions ever recorded in the GFAS dataset, second only to the extreme fires of 2023. In July, CAMS aerosol data showed smoke plumes from the wildfires moving towards the Atlantic, reaching Europe.
Although Europe experienced lower than usual fire activity overall in 2024, some regions, including southeastern Europe, Greece, and the Balkans faced significant impacts. Northern Portugal, for example, saw over 100 fires in September, with smoke travelling from the Iberian Peninsula towards France, severely impacting air quality.
Overall, global carbon emissions in 2024 amounted to nearly 2,000 megatonnes according to CAMS data, within the average range of the last 23 years observed in the dataset.
Read more about last year’s wildfires and emissions in the 2024 CAMS global wildfire review.
Daily total fire radiative power (left) and total estimated wildfire carbon (right) for Portugal in September 2024. The amounts of emissions are unprecedented in the GFAS dataset for the period. Credit: CAMS.
GFAS: from satellite detections to emissions estimates
GFAS uses satellite data, including from NASA’s MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on the Terra and Aqua satellites, to estimate emissions from wildfires and biomass burning at the global scale. These instruments provide observations of fire radiative power (FRP), a measure of the radiative heat output from active fires, which is then used to calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and a wide range of atmospheric pollutants which constitute wildfire smoke. GFAS data is used by CAMS in its atmospheric composition and air quality forecasts to track smoke transport and potential air quality impacts. In addition, the 23-year dataset is used to routinely provide context to wildfire events like the historic 2024 fires in North and South America.
Tracking the invisible threat
Wildfire smoke is a hazardous mix of particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, and other toxic pollutants which can exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and is being linked to a growing list of physical and mental health impacts that pose significant risks to humans and animals. As smoke drifts into the atmosphere, it can be carried across countries and even continents by large-scale wind patterns which can last for several few weeks, as seen in South America in 2024, affecting air quality thousands of kilometres away from their source.
CAMS plays a crucial role in reducing these risks by tracking the movement and composition of smoke plumes in near real-time. By leveraging CAMS data, governments and health organisations can respond proactively with air quality advisories, mitigation plans, and health precautions, while air quality apps provide updates and guidance to the public.
“Understanding the composition and movement of wildfire smoke is crucial for reducing health risks and guiding public advisories,” explains Mark Parrington, CAMS Senior Scientist. “Smoke from wildfires has immediate and measurable impacts on air quality from local to much larger scales, including between continents, highlighting that we are connected through the atmosphere.”
Environmental drivers of wildfires
Wildfires are driven by a combination of natural and human factors, but long-term climate conditions play a critical role in their intensity and spread. Prolonged drought, low soil moisture caused by rising temperatures, and a rainfall deficit—conditions confirmed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)—created the ideal environment for fire outbreaks in 2024.
In South America, soil moisture and surface air temperature anomalies in June reflected how vegetation had become dangerously flammable, leading to the challenging fire year.
Left: Surface air temperature anomalies for South America in June 2024, showing the areas affected by the Pantanal fires at an average of 5°C to 6°C above average. Right: soil moisture anomalies for South America in June 2024. Credit: C3S.
Uniting forces to combat wildfire impacts
The unprecedented wildfires of 2024 underscored the critical importance of reliable, real-time monitoring to address the escalating threat of wildfires globally. CAMS, through its GFAS and atmospheric data, provides invaluable insights into the scale of emissions, the composition and trajectory of hazardous smoke plumes, and their far-reaching impact on air quality. In doing so, CAMS empowers governments, health organisations, and the public to implement timely precautions and air quality advisories, mitigating health risks.
In South America, CAMS efforts complemented those of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, providing essential support to Bolivia during its state of emergency in September 2024. The EU activated its Copernicus Emergency Management Service to map fire-affected areas and support disaster response efforts aimed at protecting both lives and ecosystems.
These efforts demonstrate the important role of collaborative, data-driven solutions in addressing wildfire challenges. As climate change continues to drive conditions which fuel intense fires, Copernicus and the EU’s commitment to monitoring, mitigating, and adapting to these crises will be central to safeguarding global air quality, public health, and environmental resilience.
About Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission, provides reliable, quality-assured, freely accessible data on air quality, greenhouse gases, and atmospheric composition.
CAMS data contributes to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) European State of the Climate (ESOTC) report on wildfires. The ESOTC 2024 will be released in April 2025.
Thu, 27/02/2025 – 12:00
